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Deep Hedging Under Realistic Market Frictions: A Regime-Conditional Empirical Study of Dynamic Option Hedging on Bitcoin Options

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  • Sheryan Kumar

Abstract

Classical option-hedging methods like Black-Scholes delta assume constant, free rebalancing, which real markets don't allow. Deep hedging trains a neural network to handle these frictions directly, and prior work reports strong results. But those comparisons usually pit deep hedging against a frictionless classical baseline on simulated price data. That's not a fair fight, and it leaves open whether the advantage is real. We test this using five years of actual BTC options data from Deribit (2020-2024), comparing Black-Scholes delta, Leland's cost-adjusted hedge, and the Whalley-Wilmott no-trade band against three deep hedging setups: an LSTM and a feedforward network, each trained with a CVaR loss and, in some runs, a penalty for trading too often. All six strategies face the same 5 basis point transaction cost. On 11,546 test episodes from September 2023 to December 2024, Whalley-Wilmott cuts transaction costs significantly versus hourly rebalancing, saving $1.79 per episode against plain BS delta (95% CI [-2.21, -1.39], p

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  • Sheryan Kumar, 2026. "Deep Hedging Under Realistic Market Frictions: A Regime-Conditional Empirical Study of Dynamic Option Hedging on Bitcoin Options," Papers 2608.29025, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.29025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carbonneau, Alexandre, 2021. "Deep hedging of long-term financial derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 327-340.
    2. Leland, Hayne E, 1985. "Option Pricing and Replication with Transactions Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1283-1301, December.
    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    4. A. E. Whalley & P. Wilmott, 1997. "An Asymptotic Analysis of an Optimal Hedging Model for Option Pricing with Transaction Costs," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 307-324, July.
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