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Interpretable hybrid credit scoring for thin-file and underbanked populations

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  • Belise Kanziga
  • Ya'e U. Gaba
  • Olivier Kanamugire

Abstract

We extend a residual-learning hybrid credit scoring framework (logistic regression scorecard plus a gradient-boosting correction on its residuals, decomposed at each prediction into an interpretability ratio $\rho(x)$ that measures the share attributable to the linear branch) along three axes: an East African empirical instantiation on the Zindi Financial Inclusion in Africa data (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda); a fairness audit at the granularity of the framework's three interpretability regions; and a thin-file segmentation analysis. On the Taiwan Credit Default benchmark retained for continuity, the calibrated hybrid attains AUC $= 0.776$ ($\Delta\mathrm{AUC} = +0.057$ vs.\ standalone logistic regression, $+0.001$ vs.\ standalone XGBoost), reduces Brier Score by 23\%, and concentrates the highest-default-rate borrowers (69.5\%) in the fully interpretable region. On Zindi, the calibrated hybrid attains AUC $= 0.869$ ($\Delta\mathrm{AUC} = +0.015$ vs.\ LR, $p

Suggested Citation

  • Belise Kanziga & Ya'e U. Gaba & Olivier Kanamugire, 2026. "Interpretable hybrid credit scoring for thin-file and underbanked populations," Papers 2608.26837, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.26837
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