IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2608.26837.html

Interpretable hybrid credit scoring for thin-file and underbanked populations

Author

Listed:
  • Belise Kanziga
  • Ya'e U. Gaba
  • Olivier Kanamugire

Abstract

We extend a residual-learning hybrid credit scoring framework (logistic regression scorecard plus a gradient-boosting correction on its residuals, decomposed at each prediction into an interpretability ratio $\rho(x)$ that measures the share attributable to the linear branch) along three axes: an East African empirical instantiation on the Zindi Financial Inclusion in Africa data (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda); a fairness audit at the granularity of the framework's three interpretability regions; and a thin-file segmentation analysis. On the Taiwan Credit Default benchmark retained for continuity, the calibrated hybrid attains AUC $= 0.776$ ($\Delta\mathrm{AUC} = +0.057$ vs.\ standalone logistic regression, $+0.001$ vs.\ standalone XGBoost), reduces Brier Score by 23\%, and concentrates the highest-default-rate borrowers (69.5\%) in the fully interpretable region. On Zindi, the calibrated hybrid attains AUC $= 0.869$ ($\Delta\mathrm{AUC} = +0.015$ vs.\ LR, $p

Suggested Citation

  • Belise Kanziga & Ya'e U. Gaba & Olivier Kanamugire, 2026. "Interpretable hybrid credit scoring for thin-file and underbanked populations," Papers 2608.26837, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.26837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.26837
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lessmann, Stefan & Baesens, Bart & Seow, Hsin-Vonn & Thomas, Lyn C., 2015. "Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring: An update of research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 124-136.
    2. Dumitrescu, Elena & Hué, Sullivan & Hurlin, Christophe & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2022. "Machine learning for credit scoring: Improving logistic regression with non-linear decision-tree effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1178-1192.
    3. Kozodoi, Nikita & Jacob, Johannes & Lessmann, Stefan, 2022. "Fairness in credit scoring: Assessment, implementation and profit implications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1083-1094.
    4. Nikita Kozodoi & Johannes Jacob & Stefan Lessmann, 2021. "Fairness in Credit Scoring: Assessment, Implementation and Profit Implications," Papers 2103.01907, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    5. David Durand, 1941. "Risk Elements in Consumer Instalment Financing, Technical Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dura41-2.
    6. David Durand, 1941. "Risk Elements in Consumer Instalment Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dura41-1.
    7. Khandani, Amir E. & Kim, Adlar J. & Lo, Andrew W., 2010. "Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2767-2787, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitrios Nikolaidis & Michalis Doumpos, 2022. "Credit Scoring with Drift Adaptation Using Local Regions of Competence," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, December.
    2. Nadia Ayed & Khemaies Bougatef, 2024. "Performance Assessment of Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) in Predicting Default Probability: The Case of a Tunisian Islamic Bank," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1803-1835, September.
    3. Li, Zhe & Liang, Shuguang & Pan, Xianyou & Pang, Meng, 2024. "Credit risk prediction based on loan profit: Evidence from Chinese SMEs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    4. Schwab, Brandon & Kriebel, Johannes, 2026. "Mitigating adversarial attacks on transformer models in credit scoring," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 328(1), pages 309-323.
    5. Sullivan Hué, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable machine learning," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 19, Stata Users Group.
    6. Emmanuel Flachaire & Gilles Hacheme & Sullivan Hu'e & S'ebastien Laurent, 2022. "GAM(L)A: An econometric model for interpretable Machine Learning," Papers 2203.11691, arXiv.org.
    7. Victor Medina-Olivares & Stefan Lessmann & Jonathan Crook, 2026. "$\texttt{findr}$: Transparent and Fair Credit Risk Decisions through Semi-Structured Regressions," Papers 2608.24582, arXiv.org.
    8. Tigges, Maximilian & Mestwerdt, Sönke & Tschirner, Sebastian & Mauer, René, 2024. "Who gets the money? A qualitative analysis of fintech lending and credit scoring through the adoption of AI and alternative data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Gunnarsson, Björn Rafn & vanden Broucke, Seppe & Baesens, Bart & Óskarsdóttir, María & Lemahieu, Wilfried, 2021. "Deep learning for credit scoring: Do or don’t?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 292-305.
    10. Topuz, Kazim & Urban, Timothy L. & Yildirim, Mehmet B., 2024. "A Markovian score model for evaluating provider performance for continuity of care—An explainable analytics approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 317(2), pages 341-351.
    11. Xia, Yufei & Han, Zhiyin & Li, Yawen & He, Lingyun, 2025. "Credit scoring model for fintech lending: An integration of large language models and FocalPoly loss," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 894-919.
    12. Baesens, Bart & Smedts, Kristien, 2025. "Boosting credit risk models," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(4).
    13. Kazim Topuz & Akhilesh Bajaj & Kristof Coussement & Timothy L. Urban, 2025. "Interpretable machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 347(2), pages 775-782, April.
    14. Maarouf, Abdurahman & Feuerriegel, Stefan & Pröllochs, Nicolas, 2025. "A fused large language model for predicting startup success," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 322(1), pages 198-214.
    15. Przemys{l}aw Biecek & Marcin Chlebus & Janusz Gajda & Alicja Gosiewska & Anna Kozak & Dominik Ogonowski & Jakub Sztachelski & Piotr Wojewnik, 2021. "Enabling Machine Learning Algorithms for Credit Scoring -- Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods for clear understanding complex predictive models," Papers 2104.06735, arXiv.org.
    16. Elena Ivona DUMITRESCU & Sullivan HUE & Christophe HURLIN & Sessi TOKPAVI, 2020. "Machine Learning or Econometrics for Credit Scoring: Let’s Get the Best of Both Worlds," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2839, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    17. Piccialli, Veronica & Romero Morales, Dolores & Salvatore, Cecilia, 2024. "Supervised feature compression based on counterfactual analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 317(2), pages 273-285.
    18. Büşra Alma Çallı & Erman Coşkun, 2021. "A Longitudinal Systematic Review of Credit Risk Assessment and Credit Default Predictors," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    19. Zha, Yong & Wang, Yuting & Li, Quan & Yao, Wenying, 2022. "Credit offering strategy and dynamic pricing in the presence of consumer strategic behavior," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 753-766.
    20. Sahab Zandi & Noah Kostesku & Christophe Mues & Mar'ia 'Oskarsd'ottir & Cristi'an Bravo, 2026. "Communicating Credit Risk with Large Language Models: Evaluation of Explanations from Standard and Alternative Data-Based Models," Papers 2608.17715, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.26837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.