Beyond Lognormal Sums: A Four-Moment Probability Framework for Basket and Spread Option Pricing

Basket options are difficult to value under correlated lognormal dynamics because weighted sums and differences of lognormal variables have no tractable distribution. This paper develops a probability-based four-moment framework that separates the exact pricing representation from the distributional approximation. A change of measure first writes a basket price as a linear combination of probabilities. For a standard basket with one positive weight, these probabilities become CDF values of positive correlated lognormal sums. Each sum is approximated by a shifted lognormal variance mixture matched to its first four moments. For an unrestricted mixed-sign basket, a signed shifted lognormal proxy gives an analytical call-price formula. We state admissibility conditions, provide a practical root-selection rule, establish the main strike-based financial properties of the direct proxy, and derive exact pricing-error identities in terms of cumulative distribution function (CDF) discrepancies. The numerical analysis combines standard-basket benchmarks with an empirical application to a normalized $3{:}2{:}1$ crack spread constructed from RBOB gasoline, ULSD or heating oil, and WTI futures. The results show that the probability reformulation and the fourth-moment condition improve the distributional fit and pricing accuracy, particularly when maturity and tail asymmetry increase. The framework remains analytical, transparent, and suitable for repeated valuation across strikes and maturities.