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The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions

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  • Toby Ord

Abstract

AI is increasingly being used to help with AI R&D. Under certain conditions this feedback loop might be able to produce an intelligence explosion, with rapidly escalating AI capabilities. I explore the mathematics of the most explosive possibilities, with an eye to understanding what drives the dynamics. I show that singular growth (towards a vertical asymptote) is harder to achieve than would be expected from recent economics-inspired modelling, and that there is an important but neglected class of growth rates that are faster than exponential but don't lead to a vertical asymptote. I draw out the generation time (the time to go around the feedback loop) as a neglected parameter that plays a pivotal role in determining the behaviour of any intelligence explosion --- one cannot have singular growth unless the generation time rapidly approaches zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Toby Ord, 2026. "The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions," Papers 2608.14426, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2608.14426
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