IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2607.04308.html

Markov Information Processes

Author

Listed:
  • Furkan Sezer

Abstract

We study information design when a designer with commitment shapes the information of strategically interacting, far-sighted agents whose actions drive a persistent, controlled Markov state. We introduce the Markov Bayes correlated equilibrium (Markov BCE), the controlled-Markov generalisation of the BCE of Bergemann and Morris (2016), characterised by a dynamic obedience condition that adds a continuation-value term to the static one and reduces to it when actions cannot move the state. Recommending actions is without loss; the designer's problem is recursive in the agents' promised continuation utilities and is solved by a set-valued backward-induction algorithm whose optimum exists and lies between the no-disclosure and first-best values. For linear-quadratic-Gaussian payoffs the obedience condition becomes a covariance condition with a modified interaction matrix, and the stationary case reduces to an algebraic Riccati equation. When agents instead learn the transition, we identify the rent an agent earns from a model of the dynamics sharper than the designer anticipates: it is non-negative, zero at the known-dynamics benchmark, and deterred only by building slack into obedience. Under persistent excitation the cumulative rent grows logarithmically as heterogeneous agents' estimates converge. Two worked examples, in congestion and resource coordination, together with a numerical study illustrate the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Furkan Sezer, 2026. "Markov Information Processes," Papers 2607.04308, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2607.04308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.04308
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2013. "Robust Predictions in Games With Incomplete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1251-1308, July.
    2. Stephen E. Spear & Sanjay Srivastava, 1987. "On Repeated Moral Hazard with Discounting," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(4), pages 599-617.
    3. Bergemann, Dirk & Morris, Stephen, 2016. "Bayes correlated equilibrium and the comparison of information structures in games," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(2), May.
    4. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1821rrr is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alessandro Pavan & Ilya Segal & Juuso Toikka, 2014. "Dynamic Mechanism Design: A Myersonian Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 601-653, March.
    6. Laurent Mathevet & Jacopo Perego & Ina Taneva, 2020. "On Information Design in Games," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1370-1404.
    7. Makris, Miltiadis & Renou, Ludovic, 2023. "Information design in multi-stage games," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.
    8. Krishnamurthy Iyer & Haifeng Xu & You Zu, 2023. "Markov Persuasion Processes with Endogenous Agent Beliefs," Papers 2307.03181, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    9. Furkan Sezer, 2026. "Continuous-Time Information-Mechanism Control," Papers 2606.24015, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
    10. Jibang Wu & Zixuan Zhang & Zhe Feng & Zhaoran Wang & Zhuoran Yang & Michael I. Jordan & Haifeng Xu, 2022. "Sequential Information Design: Markov Persuasion Process and Its Efficient Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2202.10678, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chan, Jimmy & Gupta, Seher & Li, Fei & Wang, Yun, 2019. "Pivotal persuasion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 178-202.
      • Jimmy Chan & Seher Gupta & Fei Li & Yun Wang, 2018. "Pivotal Persuasion," Working Papers 2018-11-03, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    2. repec:upd:utmpwp:018 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Emiliano Catonini & Antonio Penta, 2024. "Backward Induction Reasoning beyond Backward Induction," Working Papers 1315, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Hiroto Sato, 2023. "Robust implementation in sequential information design under supermodular payoffs and objective," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 27(2), pages 269-285, June.
    5. Emiliano Cantonini & Antonio Penta, 2022. "Backward induction reasoning beyond backward induction," Economics Working Papers 1815, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Li, Xuelin & Szydlowski, Martin & Yu, Fangyuan, 2025. "Dynamic information design in an entry game," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Catonini, Emiliano & Penta, Antonio, 2022. "Backward Induction Reasoning beyond Backward Induction," TSE Working Papers 22-1298, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Masaki Miyashita & Takashi Ui, 2023. "LQG Information Design," Papers 2312.09479, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    9. Feng, Xin, 2020. "Information disclosure on the contest mechanism," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 148-156.
    10. Li, Fei & Song, Yangbo & Zhao, Mofei, 2023. "Global manipulation by local obfuscation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    11. Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris, 2019. "Information Design: A Unified Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 44-95, March.
    12. Garrett, Daniel F., 2021. "Payoff implications of incentive contracting," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(4), November.
    13. Skreta, Vasiliki & Koessler, Frédéric, 2021. "Information Design by an Informed Designer," CEPR Discussion Papers 15709, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Toygar T. Kerman & P. Jean‐Jacques Herings & Dominik Karos, 2024. "Persuading sincere and strategic voters," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 26(1), February.
    15. Carroll, Gabriel, 2016. "Informationally robust trade and limits to contagion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 334-361.
    16. Sato, Hiroto & Shirakawa, Ryo, 2025. "Information structures in college admissions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    17. Jeanne Hagenbach & Frédéric Koessler, 2019. "Partial Language Competence," Working Papers hal-03393108, HAL.
    18. Garrett, Daniel F. & Pavan, Alessandro, 2015. "Dynamic managerial compensation: A variational approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PB), pages 775-818.
    19. Dirk Bergemann & Benjamin Brooks & Stephen Morris, 2015. "The Limits of Price Discrimination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 921-957, March.
    20. Bergemann, Dirk & Heumann, Tibor & Morris, Stephen, 2015. "Information and volatility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 427-465.
    21. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2021. "Identification of firms’ beliefs in structural models of market competition," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 5-33, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2607.04308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.