IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2607.02823.html

Pump.fun Graduation Regime Windows: Survival Analysis of 832,941 Token Launches and the Social-Presence Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Arati Uday Kamat

Abstract

We present a Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards survival analysis of 832,941 Solana pump.fun token launches with 24-hour graduation outcomes, observed continuously between 2026-05-08 and 2026-06-10. The pooled graduation rate is 0.198% (Wilson 95% CI [0.189%, 0.208%]), a 3.18x decline from the 0.63% rate reported by Marino et al. (2026) for September-October 2025. After excluding a four-day tracker warm-up and the partial last day, the steady-state rate is 0.207% (Wilson 95% CI [0.198%, 0.218%]). We formalise the windowed comparison as the Graduation Regime Windows (GRW) framework, name our 34-day window the RED-PUMP-2026-v1 regime, and release the 860,213-launch dataset under CC-BY-4.0 on Zenodo at concept DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20633486. Social-channel presence exerts a large effect: launches advertising Telegram graduate at 1.485% versus 0.166% without (8.94x lift, log-rank p 31 SOL) graduates at 0.634%, matching the 2025 pooled rate. The cross-regime decline is substantially attributable to a shift toward zero-self-buy tokens rather than a fall in success rate among self-buy launches. Cox concordance is 0.858.

Suggested Citation

  • Arati Uday Kamat, 2026. "Pump.fun Graduation Regime Windows: Survival Analysis of 832,941 Token Launches and the Social-Presence Effect," Papers 2607.02823, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2607.02823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.02823
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2607.02823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.