IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2605.19401.html

External Demand, Domestic Monetary Conditions, and Remittance Dynamics in Nepal

Author

Listed:
  • Sahaj Raj Malla

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants and dynamic behaviour of personal remittances as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nepal, emphasizing external demand in major destination countries and domestic monetary policy. Using annual data (1993-2024), we construct composite indices via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for multi-country external demand and a domestic Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). Our small-sample econometric pipeline includes Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Engle-Granger cointegration, Dynamic OLS (DOLS), and a two-step Error Correction Model (ECM). We also employ Granger causality tests and multi-model forecasting using machine learning and ECM scenarios. The analysis reveals a strong positive long-run effect of external demand on remittances and a significant negative impact of tighter domestic monetary conditions. The ECM confirms a stable cointegrating relationship, correcting approximately 26% of disequilibria annually. Medium-term projections indicate remittances will remain structurally important, reaching around 28.3% of GDP by 2030 under baseline conditions, while exhibiting high sensitivity to external demand shocks. This study advances the literature by integrating PCA-derived external demand and monetary conditions indices within a unified ARDL-ECM framework for small samples. Focusing on one of the world's most remittance-dependent economies, it offers actionable insights for monetary policy calibration, migration diversification, and the productive utilization of remittance inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahaj Raj Malla, 2026. "External Demand, Domestic Monetary Conditions, and Remittance Dynamics in Nepal," Papers 2605.19401, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.19401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.19401
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Hubert Ebeke & Mathilde Maurel & Thierry Urbain Yogo, 2014. "Remittances and Working Poverty," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1348-1361, November.
    3. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
    4. Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Hubert Ebeke & Mathilde Maurel & Thierry Urbain Yogo, 2014. "Remittances and Working Poverty," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1348-1361, November.
    5. Raju Jan Singh & Markus Haacker & Kyung-woo Lee & Maëlan Le Goff, 2011. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(2), pages 312-340, March.
    6. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-178, May.
    7. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01167226 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. S. Nyasha & N.M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of remittances on economic growth: empirical evidence from South Africa," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 254-272.
    9. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Remittances as insurance: evidence from Mexican immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 227-254, June.
    10. Michael Lokshin & Mikhail Bontch‐Osmolovski & Elena Glinskaya, 2010. "Work‐Related Migration and Poverty Reduction in Nepal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 323-332, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao, Koffi Yves & Kouakou, Konan Auguste, 2021. "Remittances, labour productivity and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 124302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Oteng-Abayie, Eric & Awuni, Prosper Ayinbilla & Adjei, Thomas Kwame, 2020. "The Impact of Inward Remittances on Economic Growth in Ghana," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(3), November.
    3. Hagen-Zanker, Jessica, 2010. "Modest expectations: Causes and effects of migration on migrant households in source countries," MPRA Paper 29507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Artatrana Ratha and Eungmin Kang, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of International Remittances: Evidence from Time-Series and Panel Methods," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 51-76, September.
    5. Imene Guetat & Dorsaf Sridi, 2017. "Institutional quality effect on remittances in MENA region," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 84-100, January.
    6. Kim, Jounghyeon, 2023. "Does population aging matter for remittances in developing countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1038-1056.
    7. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice:Evidence from Tanzania," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Hirvonen, Kalle & Lilleør, Helene Bie, 2015. "Going Back Home: Internal Return Migration in Rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 186-202.
    9. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Maëlan LE GOFF, 2010. "Aid and remittances: their stabilizing impact compared," Working Papers P12, FERDI.
    10. Garcia, Pablo M & Rodriguez-Montemayor, Eduardo, 2010. "A primer of international migration: The Latin American experience and a proposal for a research agenda," MPRA Paper 24147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tigran A. Melkonyan & Mr. David A. Grigorian, 2008. "Microeconomic Implications of Remittances in an Overlapping Generations Model with Altruism and Self-Interest," IMF Working Papers 2008/019, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa & Jacques Simon Song & Blaise Ondoua Beyene & Georges Ngnouwal Eloundou, 2023. "Does social media drive remittances in Africa?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 429-443, December.
    13. Bharati Basu & James T. Bang, 2013. "Insurance and remittances: New evidence from Latin American immigrants to the US," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 10(3), pages 383-398, September.
    14. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Jeffrey H. Cohen & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13092, April.
    15. Dambar Uprety, 2017. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Nepal," Journal of Development Innovations, KarmaQuest International, vol. 1(1), pages 114-134, February.
    16. repec:kqi:journl:2017-1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Roman, Monica & Ileanu, Bogdan, 2010. "Modelarea Deciziei De Remitere A Emigranţilor Est Europeni [Modelling The Remittance Decision Of Eastern European Emigrants]," MPRA Paper 31776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    18. Akanbi, Sa’ad Babatunde & Yusuf, Abdulfatai Adekunle, 2024. "Governance Quality and Remittances in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 12(01), March.
    19. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01599362, HAL.
    20. Imouokhome Peter Afen-Okhai, 2023. "Impact of Migration and Remittances on Economic Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 569-605, August.
    21. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Post-Print halshs-01599362, HAL.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.19401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.