IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2605.11640.html

Fill-Side Behavioral Concentration on Polymarket: Identification Limits under Record-Level Attribution

Author

Listed:
  • Maksym Nechepurenko

Abstract

This paper studies behavioral concentration in Polymarket's public executed-fill record and formalizes what that record can and cannot identify. A pre-publication reconciliation corrects the empirical scope: the archived extraction covers the legacy CTF Exchange over Polygon blocks 86,008,447-86,107,178, approximately 25 April 2026 17:09 UTC through 28 April 2026 00:00 UTC, rather than the full 21-27 April week stated previously. It contains 13,356,931 OrderFilled records, 77,204 addresses with at least five attributed records, and 43,116 token identifiers; negative-risk markets are absent. The archived feature construction credits both maker and taker addresses on each record. This convention is not invariant to match fragmentation, and mint/burn executions do not admit a universal buyer/seller interpretation. The reported one-cluster result is therefore retained only as a null under the original record-level representation, not as evidence that the participant population is intrinsically unimodal. The concentration table is likewise attribution-weighted arithmetic under that convention. Two methodological results remain durable: public fills do not identify the quote lifecycle required to infer market making, spoofing, or strategic withdrawal; and a one-cluster result rejects density separation in an observed feature space, not latent economic heterogeneity. A match-normalized, mint-aware, multi-window replication is required before treating the cluster null or exact cohort shares as stable venue properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Maksym Nechepurenko, 2026. "Fill-Side Behavioral Concentration on Polymarket: Identification Limits under Record-Level Attribution," Papers 2605.11640, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.11640
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.11640
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2007. "Empirical Market Microstructure: The Institutions, Economics, and Econometrics of Securities Trading," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195301649.
    2. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    4. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
    5. Agostino Capponi & Ruizhe Jia, 2021. "The Adoption of Blockchain-based Decentralized Exchanges," Papers 2103.08842, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    6. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. "Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-1478, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shaw Dalen, 2026. "What Happens When Institutional Liquidity Enters Prediction Markets: Identification, Measurement, and a Synthetic Proof of Concept," Papers 2604.10005, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2026.
    2. Schoeneborn, Torsten & Schied, Alexander, 2007. "Liquidation in the Face of Adversity: Stealth Vs. Sunshine Trading, Predatory Trading Vs. Liquidity Provision," MPRA Paper 5548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Agostino Capponi & 'Alvaro Cartea & Fayc{c}al Drissi, 2026. "The Viability of Blockchain Markets under Discrete Clearing and Paid Priority," Papers 2605.17425, arXiv.org.
    4. Lof, Matthijs & van Bommel, Jos, 2023. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Malinova, Katya & Park, Andreas, 2014. "The impact of competition and information on intraday trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 55-71.
    6. Frank M. V. Feys, 2026. "Axiomatic Market Making," Papers 2606.09454, arXiv.org.
    7. Pham, Thu Phuong & Westerholm, P. Joakim, 2013. "A survey of research into broker identity and limit order book," Working Papers 17212, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 16 Oct 2013.
    8. Dean Katselas & Baljit K. Sidhu & Chuan Yu, 2021. "Liquidity and information asymmetry around unscheduled mining announcements," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 3053-3087, June.
    9. Havran, Dániel & Erb, Tamás, 2015. "Mit veszítünk a piaci súrlódásokkal?. A pénzügyi piacok mikrostruktúrája [Trading mechanisms and market frictions. Microstructure of the financial markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 229-262.
    10. Choi, Jin Hyuk & Larsen, Kasper & Seppi, Duane J., 2019. "Information and trading targets in a dynamic market equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 22-49.
    11. Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis Angelos & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher, 2023. "Market conditions and order-type preference," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Slim, Skander & Dahmene, Meriam, 2016. "Asymmetric information, volatility components and the volume–volatility relationship for the CAC40 stocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 70-84.
    13. Lerner, Peter, 2010. "Theoretical analysis of the bid-ask bounce and Related Phenomena," MPRA Paper 35929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Yildiz, Serhat & Van Ness, Bonnie & Van Ness, Robert, 2020. "VPIN, liquidity, and return volatility in the U.S. equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    15. Irene Aldridge, 2026. "Liquidity Premium and Investment Horizons," Papers 2607.01377, arXiv.org.
    16. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    17. Barardehi, Yashar H. & Bernhardt, Dan, 2025. "Revisiting the ∪-shaped patterns in volatility and price impacts: Novel results using trade-time estimates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Sastry, Ravi & Thompson, Rex, 2019. "Strategic trading with risk aversion and information flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-16.
    19. LOVO, Stefano M. & CALCAGNO, R., 2001. "Market efficiency and Price Formation when Dealers are Asymmetrically Informed," HEC Research Papers Series 737, HEC Paris.
    20. Dean Katselas, 2020. "Strategic insider trading around earnings announcements in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3709-3741, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.11640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.