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Robustness of Refugee-Matching Gains to Off-Policy Evaluation Choices

Author

Listed:
  • Kirk Bansak
  • Elisabeth Paulson
  • Dominik Rothenhausler
  • Jeremy Ferwerda
  • Jens Hainmueller
  • Michael Hotard

Abstract

Previous research has investigated the potential of refugee matching for boosting refugee outcomes, first considered by Bansak et al. (2018). This paper demonstrates the stability of counterfactual impact evaluation results in the context of refugee matching in the United States using a range of off-policy evaluation methods. In order to estimate counterfactual impact and test the robustness of our results, we employ several evaluation methods, including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple variants of augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW). We also consider various modifications, including alternative modeling architectures and different assignment procedures. The impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude in all scenarios as well as statistically significant in most cases. Furthermore, the estimates are also consistent with the results originally presented in Bansak et al. (2018).

Suggested Citation

  • Kirk Bansak & Elisabeth Paulson & Dominik Rothenhausler & Jeremy Ferwerda & Jens Hainmueller & Michael Hotard, 2026. "Robustness of Refugee-Matching Gains to Off-Policy Evaluation Choices," Papers 2605.06686, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.06686
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Narges Ahani & Paul Gölz & Ariel D. Procaccia & Alexander Teytelboym & Andrew C. Trapp, 2024. "Dynamic Placement in Refugee Resettlement," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 72(3), pages 1087-1104, May.
    2. Acharya, Avidit & Bansak, Kirk & Hainmueller, Jens, 2022. "Combining Outcome-Based and Preference-Based Matching: A Constrained Priority Mechanism," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 89-112, January.
    3. Hamsa Bastani & Osbert Bastani & Bryce McLaughlin, 2026. "Winner's Curse Drives False Promises in Data-Driven Decisions: A Case Study in Refugee Matching," Papers 2602.08892, arXiv.org.
    4. Narges Ahani & Tommy Andersson & Alessandro Martinello & Alexander Teytelboym & Andrew C. Trapp, 2021. "Placement Optimization in Refugee Resettlement," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 1468-1486, September.
    5. Kirk Bansak & Elisabeth Paulson, 2024. "Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 72(6), pages 2375-2390, November.
    6. Isaiah Andrews & Toru Kitagawa & Adam McCloskey, 2024. "Inference on Winners," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(1), pages 305-358.
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