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Exact Likelihood Inference and Robust Filtering for Gauss-Cauchy Convolution Models

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  • Peter Reinhard Hansen
  • Chen Tong

Abstract

The convolution of a Gaussian and a Cauchy distribution, known as the Voigt distribution, is widely used in spectroscopy and provides a natural framework for modeling heavy-tailed measurement noise. We derive analytical expressions for its density, score, Hessian, and conditional moments using the scaled complementary error function, enabling stable maximum likelihood estimation without numerical convolution, finite-difference derivatives, or pseudo-Voigt approximations. The conditional expectation of the latent Gaussian component is governed by a redescending location score, so extreme observations are automatically discounted rather than propagated. This structure motivates the Gauss-Cauchy Convolution (GCC) filter for state-space models with Gaussian latent dynamics and heavy-tailed measurement errors. In an application to log realized volatility for the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, the GCC filter separates persistent latent variation from transient measurement noise and improves on Gaussian, Student-$t$, Huber, and related robust alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Reinhard Hansen & Chen Tong, 2026. "Exact Likelihood Inference and Robust Filtering for Gauss-Cauchy Convolution Models," Papers 2605.01665, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.01665
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.01665
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