IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2605.00196.html

Modeling Stock Returns and Volatility Using Bivariate Gamma Generalized Laplace Law

Author

Listed:
  • Tomasz J. Kozubowski
  • Andrey Sarantsev
  • James A. Spiker

Abstract

We consider a generalization of the variance-gamma (generalized asymmetric Laplace) distribution, defined as a normal mean - variance mixture with a gamma mixing distribution. While this model is typically studied in the univariate setting, we assume that the gamma mixing variable is observed alongside the primary variable, resulting in a bivariate framework. In this setting, maximum likelihood estimation becomes significantly simpler than in the standard univariate case, reducing to a form of classical linear regression. We derive explicit expressions for the resulting estimators. For certain parameter configurations, the estimators exhibit nonstandard convergence rates, exceeding the usual square-root rate. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of this model in financial contexts by analyzing stock index returns and associated volatility for several major indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz J. Kozubowski & Andrey Sarantsev & James A. Spiker, 2026. "Modeling Stock Returns and Volatility Using Bivariate Gamma Generalized Laplace Law," Papers 2605.00196, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.00196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.00196
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    2. Krzysztof Podgórski & Jonas Wallin, 2015. "Maximizing leave-one-out likelihood for the location parameter of unbounded densities," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 67(1), pages 19-38, February.
    3. Charles K. Amponsah & Tomasz J. Kozubowski & Anna K. Panorska, 2021. "A general stochastic model for bivariate episodes driven by a gamma sequence," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian Sing Fan Chan & Andy Cheuk Hin Cheng & Alfred Ka Chun Ma, 2018. "Stock Market Volatility and Trading Volume: A Special Case in Hong Kong With Stock Connect Turnover," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 306-316, August.
    3. Liudas Giraitis & Fulvia Marotta, 2023. "Estimation on unevenly spaced time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5-6), pages 556-577, September.
    4. Alexander Mende, 2006. "09/11 on the USD/EUR foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 213-222.
    5. Wolfgang Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Uta Pigorsch, 2009. "Measuring and Modeling Risk Using High-Frequency Data," Springer Books, in: Wolfgang K. Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Ludger Overbeck (ed.), Applied Quantitative Finance, edition 2, chapter 13, pages 275-293, Springer.
    6. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Working Papers 2000-57, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Nonparametric Efficiency Testing of Asian Stock Markets Using Weekly Data," Finance 0409033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Konishi, Hizuru, 2002. "Optimal slice of a VWAP trade," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 197-221, April.
    9. Michelle B Graczyk & Sílvio M Duarte Queirós, 2017. "Intraday seasonalities and nonstationarity of trading volume in financial markets: Collective features," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, July.
    10. Yeap, Claudia & Kwok, Simon S. & Choy, S. T. Boris, 2016. "A Flexible Generalised Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and its Special Cases," Working Papers 2016-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    11. Zou, Yongjie & Li, Honggang, 2014. "Time spans between price maxima and price minima in stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 303-309.
    12. BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2003. "Dynamic latent factor models for intensity processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003103, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    13. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    14. Abhinava Tripathi, 2021. "The Arrival of Information and Price Adjustment Across Extreme Quantiles: Global Evidence," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-19, January.
    15. Kwame Boamah‐Addo & Tomasz J. Kozubowski & Anna K. Panorska, 2023. "A discrete truncated Zipf distribution," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 77(2), pages 156-187, May.
    16. Markus Haas & Stefan Mittnik & Marc Paolella, 2006. "Modelling and predicting market risk with Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1145-1162.
    17. Nicolas Huth & Frédéric Abergel, 2012. "The times change: multivariate subordination, empirical facts," Post-Print hal-00620841, HAL.
    18. Eross, Andrea & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "The intraday dynamics of bitcoin," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-81.
    19. Alain Guay, 2020. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions Through Higher Unconditional Moments," Working Papers 20-19, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    20. McMillan, David G. & Speight, Alan E. H., 2001. "Non-ferrous metals price volatility: a component analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 199-207, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2605.00196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.