IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2601.06343.html

Resolving the automation paradox: falling labor share, rising wages

Author

Listed:
  • David Autor
  • B. N. Kausik

Abstract

A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a competitive economy with constant returns to scale, we prove that the wage-maximizing labor share depends only on the capital-to-labor ratio, implying a non-monotonic relationship between labor share and wages. When labor share exceeds this wage-maximizing level, further automation increases wages even while reducing labor's output share. Using data from the United States and eleven other industrialized countries, we estimate that labor share is too high in all twelve, implying that further automation should raise wages. Moreover, we find that falling labor share accounted for 16\% of U.S. real wage growth between 1954 and 2019. These wage gains notwithstanding, automation-driven shifts in labor share are likely to pose significant social and political challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • David Autor & B. N. Kausik, 2026. "Resolving the automation paradox: falling labor share, rising wages," Papers 2601.06343, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.06343
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.06343
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu, 2025. "The simple macroeconomics of AI," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 13-58.
    2. Bentolila Samuel & Saint-Paul Gilles, 2003. "Explaining Movements in the Labor Share," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, October.
    3. Marta Guerriero, 2019. "Democracy and the Labor Share of Income: A Cross-Country Analysis," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Gary Fields & Saumik Paul (ed.), Labor Income Share in Asia, chapter 0, pages 151-176, Springer.
    4. Bontadini, filippo & corrado, Carol & Haskel, Jonathan & Iommi, Massimiliano, 2023. "Euklems and IntanProd: industry productivity accounts with intangibles," MPRA Paper 126218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Loukas Karabarbounis, 2024. "Perspectives on the Labor Share," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 107-136, Spring.
    6. Daniel McFadden, 1963. "Constant Elasticity of Substitution Production Functions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 30(2), pages 73-83.
    7. Andrew Glover & Jacob Short, 2020. "Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor's Share?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 35-53, January.
    8. Benjamin F. Jones & Xiaojie Liu, 2024. "A Framework for Economic Growth with Capital-Embodied Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(5), pages 1448-1487, May.
    9. Robert S. Chirinko, 2008. "ó: The Long And Short Of It," CESifo Working Paper Series 2234, CESifo.
    10. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai K. Bergman & Hyunseob Kim, 2022. "Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 200-250.
    11. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    12. Chirinko, Robert S., 2008. "[sigma]: The long and short of it," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 671-686, June.
    13. Anton Korinek & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 349-390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    15. Michael Knoblach & Martin Roessler & Patrick Zwerschke, 2020. "The Elasticity of Substitution Between Capital and Labour in the US Economy: A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 62-82, February.
    16. Hugo Hopenhayn & Julian Neira & Rish Singhania, 2022. "From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1879-1914, July.
    17. Simcha Barkai, 2020. "Declining Labor and Capital Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2421-2463, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kausik, B.N., 2023. "Cognitive Aging and Labor Share," MPRA Paper 118406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bellocchi, Alessandro & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2023. "Can variable elasticity of substitution explain changes in labor shares?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Benjamin Bridgman & Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, 2022. "Public enterprise and the rise and fall of labor share," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 320-350, January.
    4. Kyoji Fukao & Cristiano Perugini, 2021. "The Long‐Run Dynamics of the Labor Share in Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 445-480, June.
    5. Jacob, Tinu Iype & Paul, Sunil, 2024. "Labour income share, market power and automation: Evidence from an emerging economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 37-45.
    6. von Maydell, Richard, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and its Effect on Competition and Factor Income Shares," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    7. Matthew Rochat, 2023. "The determinants of growing economic inequality within advanced democracies," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 70(4), pages 457-475, December.
    8. Terranova, Roberta & Turco, Enrico M., 2022. "Concentration, stagnation and inequality: An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 569-595.
    9. Antonio Cutanda, 2022. "The elasticity of substitution and labor-saving innovations in the Spanish regions," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 49(2 Year 20), pages 123-144, December.
    10. Maarten De Ridder, 2024. "Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 199-251, January.
    11. David Autor & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2023. "Local and national concentration trends in jobs and sales: the role of structural transformation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1916, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Simcha Barkai & Surech Nallareddy & Maria Ogneva, 2025. "Capitalization of Intellectual Property Products Does Not Explain the Decline in the Labor Share," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
    13. Brian Bell & Paweł Bukowski & Stephen Machin, 2024. "The Decline in Rent Sharing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(3), pages 683-716.
    14. Francesca Crucitti & Lorenza Rossi, 2022. "Labor Share Decline and Productivity Slowdown: A Micro-Macro Analysis," Working Papers 350577481, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Barkai, Simcha & Benzell, Seth G., 2024. "70 years of US corporate profits," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Del Río, Fernando & Rebelo, Francisco, 2025. "OECD labour share trends: Factor efficiency vs. market distortions in a neoclassical framework," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 2554-2591.
    18. Xiao, De & Yu, Fan & Guo, Chenhao, 2023. "The impact of China's pilot carbon ETS on the labor income share: Based on an empirical method of combining PSM with staggered DID," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    19. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "From the Entrepreneurial to the Ossified Economy: Evidence, Explanations and a New Perspective," GLO Discussion Paper Series 539, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    20. Adriana Grasso & Juan Passadore & Facundo Piguillem, 2024. "The Macroeconomics of Hedging Income Shares," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.06343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.