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Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases -- OPTiMEM and the Heat Conjecture(s)

Author

Listed:
  • Brian P. Hanley

    (Butterfly Sciences)

  • Pieter Tans

    (Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Edward A. G. Schuur

    (Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University)

  • Geoffrey Gardiner

    (London Institute of Banking and Finance)

  • Steve Keen

    (Institute for Strategy, Resilience & Security, University College London)

  • Adam Smith

    (Climate Central)

Abstract

Despite well-meaning scenarios that propose global CO2 emissions will decline presented in every IPCC report since 1988, the trend of global CO2 increase continues without significant change. Even if any individual nation manages to flatten its emissions, what matters is the trajectory of the globe. Together the gulf between climate science and climate economics, plus the urgent need for alternative methods of estimation, provided the incentives for development of our Ocean-Heat-Content (OHC) Physics and Time Macro Economic Model (OPTiMEM) system. To link NOAA damages to climate required creating a carbon consumption model to drive a physics model of climate. How fast could carbon be burned and how much coal, oil and natural gas was reasonably available? A carbon model driving climate meant burning the carbon, and modelling how the earth heated up. We developed this using the most recent best greenhouse gas equations and production models for CO2, CH4, N2O, and halogenated gases. This developed an ocean heat content model for the globe. Each step is validated against Known carbon consumption, CO2, temperature, and ocean heat content. This allows a physics founded model of climate costs to be projected.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian P. Hanley & Pieter Tans & Edward A. G. Schuur & Geoffrey Gardiner & Steve Keen & Adam Smith, 2025. "Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases -- OPTiMEM and the Heat Conjecture(s)," Papers 2601.06085, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.06085
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Lenton & Juan-Carlos Ciscar, 2013. "Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 585-597, April.
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