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AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT

Author

Listed:
  • Morgan R. Frank
  • Alireza Javadian Sabet
  • Lisa Simon
  • Sarah H. Bana
  • Renzhe Yu

Abstract

Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more AI-exposed curricula had higher first-job pay and shorter job searches after ChatGPT. Together, these results point to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgan R. Frank & Alireza Javadian Sabet & Lisa Simon & Sarah H. Bana & Renzhe Yu, 2026. "AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT," Papers 2601.02554, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.02554
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