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US labor market conditions and migration: a reassessment of Bahar (2025)

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  • Francisco Rodriguez
  • Giancarlo Bravo

Abstract

Bahar (2025) argues that there is a long-term cointegrating relationship between US job vacancies and southwest border crossings. We show that this conclusion is based on a misspecified Engle-Granger test applied to first differences. Once the Engle-Granger test is correctly applied to levels, evidence for a cointegrating relationship vanishes, invalidating the paper's approach to estimating short- and long-run elasticities. Bahar's approach is therefore uninformative about the relationship between US labor market conditions and migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Rodriguez & Giancarlo Bravo, 2025. "US labor market conditions and migration: a reassessment of Bahar (2025)," Papers 2512.21429, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2512.21429
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.21429
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