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Inferring Latent Market Forces: Evaluating LLM Detection of Gamma Exposure Patterns via Obfuscation Testing

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  • Christopher Regan
  • Ying Xie

Abstract

We introduce obfuscation testing, a novel methodology for validating whether large language models detect structural market patterns through causal reasoning rather than temporal association. Testing three dealer hedging constraint patterns (gamma positioning, stock pinning, 0DTE hedging) on 242 trading days (95.6% coverage) of S&P 500 options data, we find LLMs achieve 71.5% detection rate using unbiased prompts that provide only raw gamma exposure values without regime labels or temporal context. The WHO-WHOM-WHAT causal framework forces models to identify the economic actors (dealers), affected parties (directional traders), and structural mechanisms (forced hedging) underlying observed market dynamics. Critically, detection accuracy (91.2%) remains stable even as economic profitability varies quarterly, demonstrating that models identify structural constraints rather than profitable patterns. When prompted with regime labels, detection increases to 100%, but the 71.5% unbiased rate validates genuine pattern recognition. Our findings suggest LLMs possess emergent capabilities for detecting complex financial mechanisms through pure structural reasoning, with implications for systematic strategy development, risk management, and our understanding of how transformer architectures process financial market dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Regan & Ying Xie, 2025. "Inferring Latent Market Forces: Evaluating LLM Detection of Gamma Exposure Patterns via Obfuscation Testing," Papers 2512.17923, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2512.17923
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    2. Rüdiger Frey & Alexander Stremme, 1997. "Market Volatility and Feedback Effects from Dynamic Hedging," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 351-374, October.
    3. Mixon, Scott, 2009. "Option markets and implied volatility: Past versus present," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 171-191, November.
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