IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2512.14969.html

Market Beliefs about Open vs. Closed AI

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Bjorkegren

Abstract

Market expectations about AI's economic impact may influence interest rates. Previous work has shown that US bond yields decline around the release of a sample of mostly proprietary AI models (Andrews and Farboodi 2025). I extend this analysis to include also open weight AI models that can be freely used and modified. I find long-term bond yields shift in opposite directions following the introduction of open versus closed models. Patterns are similar for treasuries, corporate bonds, and TIPS. The different movements suggest that that markets may anticipate open and closed AI advances to have different economic implications, and that the cumulative impact of AI releases on bond yields may be more muted.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Bjorkegren, 2025. "Market Beliefs about Open vs. Closed AI," Papers 2512.14969, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2512.14969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.14969
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu, 2025. "The simple macroeconomics of AI," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 13-58.
    2. Isaiah Andrews & Maryam Farboodi, 2025. "Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?," NBER Working Papers 34243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Philip Trammell & Anton Korinek, 2023. "Economic Growth under Transformative AI," NBER Working Papers 31815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    5. Charles I. Jones, 2025. "How Much Should We Spend to Reduce AI's Existential Risk?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mert Demirer & Andrey Fradkin & Nadav Tadelis & Sida Peng, 2025. "The Emerging Market for Intelligence: Pricing, Supply, and Demand for LLMs," NBER Working Papers 34608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlo Drago & Alberto Costantiello & Marco Savorgnan & Angelo Leogrande, 2025. "Macroeconomic and Labor Market Drivers of AI Adoption in Europe: A Machine Learning and Panel Data Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-62, August.
    2. Carlo Drago & Alberto Costantiello & Marco Savorgnan & Angelo Leogrande, 2025. "Driving AI Adoption in the EU: A Quantitative Analysis of Macroeconomic Influences," Working Papers hal-05102974, HAL.
    3. Georgios A. Tritsaris, 2025. "Occupational Tasks, Automation, and Economic Growth: A Modeling and Simulation Approach," Papers 2512.16261, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    4. Minniti, Antonio & Prettner, Klaus & Venturini, Francesco, 2025. "AI innovation and the labor share in European regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Gersbach, Hans & Komarov, Evgenij & von Maydell, Richard, 2025. "Artificial intelligence as self-learning capital," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Tadle, Raul Cruz, 2022. "FOMC minutes sentiments and their impact on financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    7. Beltrán, Felipe & Coble, David, 2024. "Monetary policy surprises on the banking sector: The role of the information and pure monetary shocks," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).
    8. Tao Chen & Shuwen Pi & Qing Sophie Wang, 2025. "Artificial Intelligence and Corporate Investment Efficiency: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Working Papers in Economics 25/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Kariem Soliman, 2021. "Are Industrial Robots a new GPT? A Panel Study of Nine European Countries with Capital and Quality-adjusted Industrial Robots as Drivers of Labour Productivity Growth," EIIW Discussion paper disbei307, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    10. Michael Pedersen, 2020. "Surveying the survey: What can we learn about the effects of monetary policy on inflation expectations?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 889, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Pascal Paul, 2022. "When the Fed Raises Rates, Are Banks Less Profitable?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(35), pages 1-06, December.
    12. Peydró, José-Luis & Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Panetti, Ettore & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registe," CEPR Discussion Papers 16549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Cheng, Qiang & Lin, Pengkai & Zhao, Yue, 2025. "Does generative AI facilitate investor Trading? Early evidence from ChatGPT outages," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2).
    14. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2022. "The Ossified Economy: The Case of Germany, 1870-2020," IZA Discussion Papers 15607, IZA Network @ LISER.
    15. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    16. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "The Efficacy of Large-Scale Asset Purchases When the Short-Term Interest Rate Is at Its Effective Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 543-554.
    17. Djeneba Dramé & Florian Léon, 2025. "Do firms react to monetary policy in developing countries? [European Economic Review]," Post-Print hal-05172185, HAL.
    18. Corsi, Fulvio & Longo, Luigi & Cordoni, Francesco, 2025. "SVAR identification with nowcasted macroeconomic data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    19. Kerstin Bernoth, 2025. "Dovish Coos or Hawkish Screech? From Central Bank Talk to Economic Walk," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2137, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Jeffrey Ding & Allan Dafoe, 2021. "Engines of Power: Electricity, AI, and General-Purpose Military Transformations," Papers 2106.04338, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2512.14969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.