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Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe J. P. Antunes
  • Yuri F. Saporito
  • Sebastian Jaimungal

Abstract

We present a novel numerical method for solving McKean-Vlasov forward-backward stochastic differential equations (MV-FBSDEs) with common noise, combining Picard iterations, elicitability and deep learning. The key innovation involves elicitability to derive a path-wise loss function, enabling efficient training of neural networks to approximate both the backward process and the conditional expectations arising from common noise - without requiring computationally expensive nested Monte Carlo simulations. The mean-field interaction term is parameterized via a recurrent neural network trained to minimize an elicitable score, while the backward process is approximated through a feedforward network representing the decoupling field. We validate the algorithm on a systemic risk inter-bank borrowing and lending model, where analytical solutions exist, demonstrating accurate recovery of the true solution. We further extend the model to quantile-mediated interactions, showcasing the flexibility of the elicitability framework beyond conditional means or moments. Finally, we apply the method to a non-stationary Aiyagari--Bewley--Huggett economic growth model with endogenous interest rates, illustrating its applicability to complex mean-field games without closed-form solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe J. P. Antunes & Yuri F. Saporito & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2025. "Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise," Papers 2512.14967, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2512.14967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Achdou, Yves & Han, Jiequn & Lasry, Jean Michel & Lions, Pierre Louis & Moll, Ben, 2022. "Income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics: a continuous-time approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Anthony Coache & Sebastian Jaimungal & 'Alvaro Cartea, 2022. "Conditionally Elicitable Dynamic Risk Measures for Deep Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2206.14666, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    3. Yves Achdou & Jiequn Han & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lionse & Benjamin Moll, 2022. "Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 45-86.
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    5. Maximilien Germain & Joseph Mikael & Xavier Warin, 2022. "Numerical Resolution of McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs Using Neural Networks," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 2557-2586, December.
    6. Ren'e Carmona & Mathieu Lauri`ere, 2021. "Deep Learning for Mean Field Games and Mean Field Control with Applications to Finance," Papers 2107.04568, arXiv.org.
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