Author
Listed:
- Felipe J. P. Antunes
- Yuri F. Saporito
- Sebastian Jaimungal
Abstract
We present a novel numerical method for solving McKean-Vlasov forward-backward stochastic differential equations (MV-FBSDEs) with common noise, combining Picard iterations, elicitability and deep learning. The key innovation involves elicitability to derive a path-wise loss function, enabling efficient training of neural networks to approximate both the backward process and the conditional expectations arising from common noise - without requiring computationally expensive nested Monte Carlo simulations. The mean-field interaction term is parameterized via a recurrent neural network trained to minimize an elicitable score, while the backward process is approximated through a feedforward network representing the decoupling field. We validate the algorithm on a systemic risk inter-bank borrowing and lending model, where analytical solutions exist, demonstrating accurate recovery of the true solution. We further extend the model to quantile-mediated interactions, showcasing the flexibility of the elicitability framework beyond conditional means or moments. Finally, we apply the method to a non-stationary Aiyagari--Bewley--Huggett economic growth model with endogenous interest rates, illustrating its applicability to complex mean-field games without closed-form solutions.
Suggested Citation
Felipe J. P. Antunes & Yuri F. Saporito & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2025.
"Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise,"
Papers
2512.14967, arXiv.org.
Handle:
RePEc:arx:papers:2512.14967
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