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Prejudiced Futures? Algorithmic Bias in Time Series Forecasting and Its Ethical Implications

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  • Bagattini Alexander
  • Chen Shao

Abstract

Time series prediction algorithms are increasingly central to decision-making in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, energy management, and economic planning. Yet, these systems often inherit and amplify biases embedded in historical data, flawed problem specifications, and socio-technical design decisions. This paper critically examines the ethical foundations and mitigation strategies for algorithmic bias in time series prediction. We outline how predictive models, particularly in temporally dynamic domains, can reproduce structural inequalities and emergent discrimination through proxy variables and feedback loops. The paper advances a threefold contribution: First, it reframes algorithmic bias as a socio-technical phenomenon rooted in normative choices and institutional constraints. Second, it offers a structured diagnosis of bias sources across the pipeline, emphasizing the need for causal modeling, interpretable systems, and inclusive design practices. Third, it advocates for structural reforms that embed fairness through participatory governance, stakeholder engagement, and legally enforceable safeguards. Special attention is given to fairness validation in dynamic environments, proposing multi-metric, temporally-aware, and context-sensitive evaluation methods. Ultimately, we call for an integrated ethics-by-design approach that positions fairness not as a trade-off against performance, but as a co-requisite of responsible innovation. This framework is essential to developing predictive systems that are not only effective and adaptive but also aligned with democratic values and social equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Bagattini Alexander & Chen Shao, 2025. "Prejudiced Futures? Algorithmic Bias in Time Series Forecasting and Its Ethical Implications," Papers 2512.01877, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2512.01877
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Kenji Iwana & Seiichi Uchida, 2021. "An empirical survey of data augmentation for time series classification with neural networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Kirsten Martin, 2019. "Ethical Implications and Accountability of Algorithms," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 835-850, December.
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