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The Economics of Spatial Coordination in Critical Infrastructure Investment

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  • L Kaili Diamond
  • Benjamin Gilbert

Abstract

We develop a hybrid approach to estimate spatial coordination mechanisms in structural dynamic discrete choice models by combining nested fixed-point (NFXP) dynamic programming with method of simulated moments (MSM), achieving computational tractability in spatial settings while preserving structural interpretation. Applying this framework to GPU replacement data from 12,915 equipment locations in Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Titan supercomputer, we identify two distinct coordination mechanisms: sequential replacement cascades (gamma_lag = -0.793) and contemporaneous failure batching (gamma_fail = -0.265). Sequential coordination dominates - approximately three times stronger than failure batching - indicating that operators engage in deliberate strategic behavior rather than purely reactive responses. Spatial interdependencies account for 5.3% of variation unexplained by independent-decision models, with coordination concentrated in high-risk thermal environments exhibiting effects more than 10 times stronger than cool zones. Formal tests decisively reject spatial independence (chi-squared(2) = 685.38, p

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  • L Kaili Diamond & Benjamin Gilbert, 2025. "The Economics of Spatial Coordination in Critical Infrastructure Investment," Papers 2511.03091, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
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