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Can Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform Traditional Models for Option Pricing?

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  • Georgy Milyushkov

Abstract

This study investigates the application of machine learning techniques, specifically Neural Networks, Random Forests, and CatBoost for option pricing, in comparison to traditional models such as Black-Scholes and Heston Model. Using both synthetically generated data and real market option data, each model is evaluated in predicting the option price. The results show that machine learning models can capture complex, non-linear relationships in option prices and, in several cases, outperform both Black-Scholes and Heston models. These findings highlight the potential of data-driven methods to improve pricing accuracy and better reflect market dynamics.

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  • Georgy Milyushkov, 2025. "Can Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform Traditional Models for Option Pricing?," Papers 2510.01446, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2510.01446
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.
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    3. Hutchinson, James M & Lo, Andrew W & Poggio, Tomaso, 1994. "A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 851-889, July.
    4. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
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    6. Ludovic Goudenège & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2020. "Machine learning for pricing American options in high-dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 573-591, April.
    7. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
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