IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2509.24254.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extracting the Structure of Press Releases for Predicting Earnings Announcement Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Yuntao Wu
  • Ege Mert Akin
  • Charles Martineau
  • Vincent Gr'egoire
  • Andreas Veneris

Abstract

We examine how textual features in earnings press releases predict stock returns on earnings announcement days. Using over 138,000 press releases from 2005 to 2023, we compare traditional bag-of-words and BERT-based embeddings. We find that press release content (soft information) is as informative as earnings surprise (hard information), with FinBERT yielding the highest predictive power. Combining models enhances explanatory strength and interpretability of the content of press releases. Stock prices fully reflect the content of press releases at market open. If press releases are leaked, it offers predictive advantage. Topic analysis reveals self-serving bias in managerial narratives. Our framework supports real-time return prediction through the integration of online learning, provides interpretability and reveals the nuanced role of language in price formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuntao Wu & Ege Mert Akin & Charles Martineau & Vincent Gr'egoire & Andreas Veneris, 2025. "Extracting the Structure of Press Releases for Predicting Earnings Announcement Returns," Papers 2509.24254, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.24254
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.24254
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Bird, Andrew & Karolyi, Stephen A. & Ruchti, Thomas G., 2019. "Understanding the “numbers game”," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    3. McInish, Thomas H & Wood, Robert A, 1992. "An Analysis of Intraday Patterns in Bid/Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 753-764, June.
    4. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    5. Akey, Pat & Grégoire, Vincent & Martineau, Charles, 2022. "Price revelation from insider trading: Evidence from hacked earnings news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1162-1184.
    6. Stan Lipovetsky & Michael Conklin, 2001. "Analysis of regression in game theory approach," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 319-330, October.
    7. Price, S. McKay & Doran, James S. & Peterson, David R. & Bliss, Barbara A., 2012. "Earnings conference calls and stock returns: The incremental informativeness of textual tone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 992-1011.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Charles Martineau, 2022. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 11(3-4), pages 613-646, August.
    10. García, Diego & Hu, Xiaowen & Rohrer, Maximilian, 2023. "The colour of finance words," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 525-549.
    11. Jeffrey T. Doyle & Russell J. Lundholm & Mark T. Soliman, 2006. "The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 849-887, December.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    13. John A. Doukas & Dimitris Petmezas, 2007. "Acquisitions, Overconfident Managers and Self‐attribution Bias," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(3), pages 531-577, June.
    14. Meursault, Vitaly & Liang, Pierre Jinghong & Routledge, Bryan R. & Scanlon, Madeline Marco, 2023. "PEAD.txt: Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Using Text," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(6), pages 2299-2326, September.
    15. Vincent Grégoire & Charles Martineau, 2022. "How is Earnings News Transmitted to Stock Prices?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 60(1), pages 261-297, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    2. repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    4. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    5. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2020. "Valuation ratios, surprises, uncertainty or sentiment: How does financial machine learning predict returns from earnings announcements?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2020, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    6. Xu, Mingli & Yang, Wei & Huang, Zhixiong, 2021. "Do investor relations matter in the tourism industry? Evidence from public opinions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 923-933.
    7. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    8. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Attiya Yasmeen Javid, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE Research Report 2000:3, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    10. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    11. Lu Zhang, 2019. "Q-factors and Investment CAPM," NBER Working Papers 26538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Erica X. N. Li & Dmitry Livdan & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4301-4334, November.
    13. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Roland Rothenstein, 2018. "Quantification of market efficiency based on informational-entropy," Papers 1812.02371, arXiv.org.
    15. Lucrezia Fattobene & Marco Caiffa, 2016. "Sitting on the Board or Sitting on the Throne? Evidence of Boards' Overconfidence from the Italian Market," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 235-269, July.
    16. Arvid Oskar Ivar Hoffmann & Wander Jager & J. H. Von Eije, 2007. "Social Simulation of Stock Markets: Taking It to the Next Level," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 1-7.
    17. Edward Lee & Konstantinos Stathopoulos & Mark Hon, 2006. "Investigating the return predictability of changes in corporate borrowing," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 93-107.
    18. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    19. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ye, Dezhu & Liu, Shasha & Kong, Dongmin, 2013. "Do efforts on energy saving enhance firm values? Evidence from China's stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 360-369.
    21. Fargher, Neil & Wee, Marvin, 2019. "The impact of Ball and Brown (1968) on generations of research," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 55-72.
    22. Shariq Ahmad Bhat, 2018. "Informational efficiency of sovereign bond markets of India and China: evidence from Toda and Yamamoto Granger causality (1995)," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(4), pages 313-323, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.24254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.