An Artificial Intelligence Value at Risk Approach: Metrics and Models

Artificial intelligence risks are multidimensional in nature, as the same risk scenarios may have legal, operational, and financial risk dimensions. With the emergence of new AI regulations, the state of the art of artificial intelligence risk management seems to be highly immature due to upcoming AI regulations. Despite the appearance of several methodologies and generic criteria, it is rare to find guidelines with real implementation value, considering that the most important issue is customizing artificial intelligence risk metrics and risk models for specific AI risk scenarios. Furthermore, the financial departments, legal departments and Government Risk Compliance teams seem to remain unaware of many technical aspects of AI systems, in which data scientists and AI engineers emerge as the most appropriate implementers. It is crucial to decompose the problem of artificial intelligence risk in several dimensions: data protection, fairness, accuracy, robustness, and information security. Consequently, the main task is developing adequate metrics and risk models that manage to reduce uncertainty for decision-making in order to take informed decisions concerning the risk management of AI systems. The purpose of this paper is to orientate AI stakeholders about the depths of AI risk management. Although it is not extremely technical, it requires a basic knowledge of risk management, quantifying uncertainty, the FAIR model, machine learning, large language models and AI context engineering. The examples presented pretend to be very basic and understandable, providing simple ideas that can be developed regarding specific AI customized environments. There are many issues to solve in AI risk management, and this paper will present a holistic overview of the inter-dependencies of AI risks, and how to model them together, within risk scenarios.