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Reputational Conservatism in Expert Advice

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  • Georgy Lukyanov
  • Anna Vlasova

Abstract

We develop a tractable career-concerns model of expert recommendations with a continuous private signal. In equilibrium, advice obeys a cutoff rule: the expert recommends the risky option if and only if the signal exceeds a threshold. Under a mild relative-diagnosticity condition, the threshold is (weakly) increasing in reputation, yielding reputational conservatism. Signal informativeness and success priors lower the cutoff, while stronger career concerns raise it. A success-contingent bonus implements any target experimentation rate via a one-to-one mapping, providing an implementable design lever.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgy Lukyanov & Anna Vlasova, 2025. "Reputational Conservatism in Expert Advice," Papers 2509.04036, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04036
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.04036
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