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Reputational Conservatism in Expert Advice

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  • Georgy Lukyanov
  • Anna Vlasova

Abstract

We study expert advice with career concerns and continuous private signals. The principal always implements the safe option, and implements the risky option with a probability increasing in the expert's reputation; outcomes, when realized, update reputation. We show a unique cutoff equilibrium and continuity. Under a relative-diagnosticity condition, the experimentation threshold is increasing in reputation ("playing it safe at the top"). Comparative statics are clean, and success-contingent bonuses map one-to-one into experimentation while gatekeeping scales implemented experimentation and learning.

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  • Georgy Lukyanov & Anna Vlasova, 2025. "Reputational Conservatism in Expert Advice," Papers 2509.04036, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04036
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.04036
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