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Imprecision Attenuates Updating

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  • Martin Vaeth

Abstract

This paper studies how imprecision in noisy signals attenuates Bayesian posterior means toward the prior mean, a property underlying many comparative-statics results in information economics. We introduce the precision order, characterized by the attenuation effect across symmetric location experiments: noise density $\tilde g$ is more precise than $g$ if and only if the posterior mean under $\tilde g$ is closer to the signal than under $g$ for all signal realizations and all symmetric, log-concave priors. We apply the precision order to derive comparative statics for prior precision, the value of information, and voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Vaeth, 2025. "Imprecision Attenuates Updating," Papers 2504.02238, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2504.02238
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    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.02238
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