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Insights from Optimal Pandemic Shielding in a Multi-Group SEIR Framework

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  • Philipp Bach
  • Victor Chernozhukov
  • Martin Spindler

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the largest threats in recent decades to the health and economic welfare of populations globally. In this paper, we analyze different types of policy measures designed to fight the spread of the virus and minimize economic losses. Our analysis builds on a multi-group SEIR model, which extends the multi-group SIR model introduced by Acemoglu et al.~(2020). We adjust the underlying social interaction patterns and consider an extended set of policy measures. The model is calibrated for Germany. Despite the trade-off between COVID-19 prevention and economic activity that is inherent to shielding policies, our results show that efficiency gains can be achieved by targeting such policies towards different age groups. Alternative policies such as physical distancing can be employed to reduce the degree of targeting and the intensity and duration of shielding. Our results show that a comprehensive approach that combines multiple policy measures simultaneously can effectively mitigate population mortality and economic harm.

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  • Philipp Bach & Victor Chernozhukov & Martin Spindler, 2020. "Insights from Optimal Pandemic Shielding in a Multi-Group SEIR Framework," Papers 2011.01092, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2011.01092
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    Cited by:

    1. Milstein, Ricarda & Schreyögg, Jonas, 2022. "Activity-based funding based on diagnosis-related groups: The end of an era? A review of payment reforms in the inpatient sector in ten high-income countries," hche Research Papers 28, University of Hamburg, Hamburg Center for Health Economics (hche).

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