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Aftershocks following crash of currency exchange rate: The case of RUB/USD in 2014

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  • Vasilya Usmanova
  • Yury V. Lysogorskiy
  • Sumiyoshi Abe

Abstract

The dynamical behavior of the currency exchange rate after its large-scale catastrophe is discussed through a case study of the rate of Russian rubles to US dollars after its crash in 2014. It is shown that, similarly to the case of the stock market crash, the relaxation is characterized by a power law, which is in analogy with the Omori-Utsu law for earthquake aftershocks. The waiting-time distribution is found to also obey a power law. Furthermore, the event-event correlation is discussed, and the aging phenomenon and scaling property are observed. Comments are made on (non-)Markovianity of the aftershock process and on a possible relevance of glassy dynamics to the market system after the crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilya Usmanova & Yury V. Lysogorskiy & Sumiyoshi Abe, 2017. "Aftershocks following crash of currency exchange rate: The case of RUB/USD in 2014," Papers 1706.03246, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1706.03246
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Ming-Yuan & Li, Sai-Ping & Wu, Yue & Tang, Jingtai & Ren, Fei, 2019. "Do government rescue policies reduce the market volatility after crash? Evidence from the Shanghai stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-124.

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