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How to predict and avert economic crisis


  • Yong Tao


Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a result, appearance of economic crisis is determined by two points; that is, (a). Stock market approaches perfect competition; (b). Society reaches full employment. The empirical research of these two points would lead to early warning of economic crisis. Moreover, it is a surprise that the state of economic crisis would be a feasible equilibrium within the framework of the Arrow-Debreu model. That means that we can not understand the origin of economic crisis within the framework of modern economics, for example, the general equilibrium theory.

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  • Yong Tao, 2010. "How to predict and avert economic crisis," Papers 1010.5154,, revised Oct 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1010.5154

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. S. P. Sethi & N. A. Derzko & J. P. Lehoczky, 1991. "A Stochastic Extension of the Miller-Modigliani Framework," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(4), pages 57-76.
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