The economic effects of international administrations: The cases of Kosovo and East Timor
Does the involvement of foreign third parties in the post-conflict management of a country in the wake of a civil war have positive or negative economic effects? The approaches used to address this question in the social and political sciences literature are mostly qualitative, and are not sufficiently supported by quantitative evidence. This document attempts a quantitative analysis of the post-conflict economic performance of Kosovo and East Timor under the UN-sponsored international administrations established in both countries in the late 1990s. By using the synthetic control impact evaluation technique, we compute suitable counterfactual scenarios for each country to estimate the intervention effects of interest. A robust negative effect of the intervention is found for Kosovo, whereas the effect on East Timor is positive.
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