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Impact de programmes de protection sociale sur la pauvrete multidimensionnelle : Nouvelles approches et application au cas du Maroc

Author

Listed:
  • Touhami Abdelkhalek
  • Dorothee Boccanfuso

Abstract

Deux nouvelles methodes sont developpees pour approcher l'impact de la reforme du syst¨¨me de protection sociale au Maroc sur la pauvrete multidimensionnelle mesur¨¦e par l'IPM introduit par OPHI, et ses composantes. Ces approches se distinguent par leur mecanisme de ciblage des individus benefciaires. La premiere base l'identifcation des benefciaires sur une selection aleatoire. La seconde a priori plus objective, s'appuie sur un modele probabiliste (probit). A titre d'illustration, nous utilisons les donn¨¦es de l'Enquete Nationale sur la Population et la Sante Familiale (ENPSF) de 2018 du Maroc. Nous considerons trois scenarios de reformes ciblant les indicateurs de sante et d¡¯education. Nous presentons les resultats de facon ponctuelle et par intervalles de confiance construits selon les deux approches, Monte Carlo ou bootstrap. Nous procedons finalement ¨¤ une analyse distributionnelle pour d¨¦passerle caractere arbitraire de la fixation du seuil associe aux mesures et faire des comparaisons robustes. Nos resultats montrent que les trois reformes simulees ont un effet positif sur les mesures de la pauvrete multidimensionnelle et ce, quelque soit l'approche retenue. Au niveau methodologique, le ciblage par identification objective ne domine pas necessairement le ciblage aleatoire pour les simulations que nous avons conduites possiblement a cause de l'echantillon, fortement desequilibre.

Suggested Citation

  • Touhami Abdelkhalek & Dorothee Boccanfuso, 2021. "Impact de programmes de protection sociale sur la pauvrete multidimensionnelle : Nouvelles approches et application au cas du Maroc," Working Papers 5, Africa Institute for Research in Economics and Social Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:aof:wpaper:wp-0005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Protection sociale; Ciblage; Mesure de pauvret¨¦ multidimensionnelle; IPM; Maroc;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • N37 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Africa; Oceania

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