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Анализ и оценка влияния программы досрочного использования пенсионных накоплений на цены на рынке жилой недвижимости Казахстана // The analysis and assessment of the impact of the early pension savings withdrawal program on housing prices in the real estate market of Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Муратов Султан // Muratov Sultan

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Ыбраев Жандос // Ybrayev Zhandos

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Утарбаев Аскар // Utarbayev Askar

    (National Bank of Kazakhstan)

  • Қабдолхайров Қайырбек // Kabdolkhairov Kaiyrbek

Abstract

В данном исследовании производится оценка эффективности программы досрочного изъятия части пенсионных накоплений, введенной государством Казахстана в качестве меры поддержки в период пандемии Covid-19. Большинство изъятий было использовано Казахстанскими домохозяйствами на улучшение жилищных условий, в особенности, на приобретение жилой недвижимости. Используя государственную базу данных по транзакциям на рынке недвижимости, мы совмещаем как количественные, так и качественные признаки жилых помещений. Мы применяем метод регрессии разрыва во времени для эмпирической оценки эффективности данной меры государственной поддержки. Наши результаты указывают на то, что программа пенсионных изъятий спровоцировала рост цен в среднем на 9-14% по Казахстану. Данный эффект варьируется в зависимости от обследуемого региона. Выводы нашего исследования могут быть использованы в дальнейшем для принятия более сбалансированных мер государственной поддержки на рынке жилой недвижимости. // In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of pension withdrawal policy implemented by the government of Kazakhstan in response to Covid-19 pandemic. This policy change was primarily utilized by Kazakhstani households to improve living conditions. We use administrative transaction-level data of real estate market to track both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of housing units. We use regression discontinuity in time design (RDiT) to empirically assess the efficacy of government intervention. Our preliminary results show that the government intervention increased housing prices by about 9-14% on average across Kazakhstan. The policy effect seems to have varied depending on the region under study. These findings provide additional insights for policymakers to further draft well-balanced housing policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Муратов Султан // Muratov Sultan & Ыбраев Жандос // Ybrayev Zhandos & Утарбаев Аскар // Utarbayev Askar & Қабдолхайров Қайырбек // Kabdolkhairov Kaiyrbek, 2025. "Анализ и оценка влияния программы досрочного использования пенсионных накоплений на цены на рынке жилой недвижимости Казахстана // The analysis and assessment of the impact of the early pension saving," Working Papers #2025-3, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    • Handle: RePEc:aob:wpaper:65
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    пенсионная система; досрочные изъятия; рынок недвижимости; рост цен на жилье; метод регрессии разрыва; Казахстан; pension system; early withdrawals; real estate market; housing price growth; regression discontinuity design; Kazakhstan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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