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A domino effect evaluation model


  • RENIERS, Genserik
  • DULLAERT, Wout
  • SOUDAN, Karel


This paper makes an original contribution towards managing knock-on major accidents or accidents caused by so-called domino effects by presenting a 5 step evaluation model. First, a ‘domino danger unit’ for every couple installations in a complex network consisting of chemical installations is calculated. Second, an enumerative approach for the relative ranking of domino effects sequences between types of installations and for different accident scenarios and dangerous substances is worked out. Third, a ‘Segment Risk Factor’ is calculated by considering the frequency of the domino path segment and the overall danger of the path segment towards domino accidents. Finally, an overall classification of domino path sequences is made in order of decreasing danger. Such a classification of domino effects sequences can be implemented by safety management as a tool to support decisions on prevention prioritization.

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  • RENIERS, Genserik & DULLAERT, Wout & SOUDAN, Karel, "undated". "A domino effect evaluation model," Working Papers 2004029, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2004029

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