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Políticasanticíclicas Na Indústria Automobilística: Uma Análise De Co-Integraçãodos Impactos Da Redução Do Ipi Sobre As Vendas De Veículos

Author

Listed:
  • GUSTAVO VARELA ALVARENGA

    (UNB)

  • PATRICK FRANCO ALVES

    (IPEA)

  • CAROLINA FERNANDES DOS SANTOS

    (IPEA)

  • FERNANDA DE NEGRI

    (IPEA)

  • LUIZ RICARDO CAVALCANTE

    (IPEA)

  • MARIA CRISTINA PASSOS

    (IPEA)

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os impactos da redução do Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI) sobre as vendas de veículos no Brasil entre janeiro e novembro de 2009. Para alcançar esse objetivo, foi estimado um modelo no qual as vendas internas de veículos são função do preço, da renda e do crédito concedido para sua aquisição. O modelo econométrico adotado permite verificar a existência de relações de curto e de longo prazo entre as variáveis utilizadas. Os resultados obtidos para as elasticidades de transmissão das variáveis no longo prazo e para suas velocidades de ajustamento reafirmam a percepção de que a redução do IPI foi bastante importante para a recuperação das vendas do setor automotivo no período subsequente à crise financeira internacional. A redução do imposto foi responsável por 20,7% das vendas que se observaram no período analisado. O crédito, porém, teria apresentado um efeito não desprezível, especialmente se outras medidas anticíclicas não tivessem sido adotadas ao longo do ano de 2009. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impacts of the reduction of the Brazilian Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI) on the local sales of vehicles during the period between January and November of 2009. In order to evaluate these impacts, sales have been modeled as a function of price, income and credit for the acquisition of vehicles. The econometric model takes into account the existence of short run and long run relationships among the variables. The results obtained for the long run elasticities of transmission as well as for their short run adjustment speeds reinforce the perception that the reduction of the IPI was particularly relevant to the recovery of the vehicle sales in Brazil in the period after the international financial crisis. The results showed that 20.7% of the vehicle sales during the period can be associated to the reduction of the IPI. An increment in the credit for the acquisition of vehicles could have showed a not negligi
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Varela Alvarenga & Patrick Franco Alves & Carolina Fernandes Dos Santos & Fernanda De Negri & Luiz Ricardo Cavalcante & Maria Cristina Passos, 2011. "Políticasanticíclicas Na Indústria Automobilística: Uma Análise De Co-Integraçãodos Impactos Da Redução Do Ipi Sobre As Vendas De Veículos," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 175, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2010:175
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    Cited by:

    1. P. A. Palmeira & J. Bem-Lignani & V. A. Maresi & R. A. Mattos & G. S. Interlenghi & R. Salles-Costa, 2019. "Temporal Changes in the Association Between Food Insecurity and Socioeconomic Status in Two Population-Based Surveys in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 1349-1365, August.

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