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Por Que O Custo Do Capital No Brasil É Tão Alto?

Author

Listed:
  • André Lúcio Neves
  • Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de Paula
  • Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva
  • José Luis da Costa Oreiro
  • Rafael Quevedo do Amaral

Abstract

O presente artigo tem por objetivo explicar o elevado custo do capital no Brasil, apresentando algumas hipóteses a respeito do porque a taxa real de juros de curto-prazo e os spreads bancários são tão elevados. Nesse sentido, ao longo deste artigo pretendemos argumentar que o “problema do juro real” e o “problema do spread bancário” estão intimamente associados. Mais precisamente, iremos argumentar que uma causa importante do spread bancário elevado é o patamar elevado da taxa de juros de curto-prazo fixada pelo BCB. Dessa forma, o equacionamento definitivo do “problema dos juros” no Brasil, com a convergência da taxa real de juros de curto-prazo para os patamares observados nos demais países do mundo, deverá induzir uma redução expressiva do spread bancário, contribuindo assim para a redução do custo do capital na economia brasileira. Por sua vez, o “problema dos juros” decorre do fato de que operação da política monetária por parte do BCB é pouco eficaz no sentido de que a dinâmica da função de reação do BCB é tal que a taxa de juros SELIC acaba respondendo a variações da taxa nominal de câmbio. As variações do câmbio nominal, por sua vez, são um determinante importante da variação do IPCA, haja vista o peso dos preços administrados no cálculo do IPCA (30%) e o fato de que os preços administrados são, em larga medida, indexados pelo IGP-M e pelo IGP-DI, ambos extremamente sensíveis a variação da taxa nominal de câmbio. Nesse contexto, a inflação brasileira é predominantemente uma “inflação de custos” e, como tal, não deveria ser combatida por intermédio de elevações da taxa nominal de juros, mas por medidas que visassem diminuir a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio e a redução do efeito pass-through do câmbio para os preços como, por exemplo, a desindexação dos preços administrados com respeito a índices de preços que sejam muito sensíveis a variações da taxa nominal de câmbio. Além disso, deve-se ressaltar que a indexação de parte considerável da dívida pública feder
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Suggested Citation

  • André Lúcio Neves & Luiz Fernando Rodrigues de Paula & Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva & José Luis da Costa Oreiro & Rafael Quevedo do Amaral, 2007. "Por Que O Custo Do Capital No Brasil É Tão Alto?," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 030, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2007:030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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