Um Modelo Macrodinâmico Pós-Keynesiano De Simulação Com Progresso Técnico Endógeno
The objective of this article is to present the structure and the first computational simulations of a one-sector macrodynamic model that imbed some elements of the post- keynesian theoretical framework. The theoretical elements embed in the model are: i) determination of the level of output by the principle of effective demand; (ii) differentiated savings propensities of capitalists and workers; iii) mark-up pricing; iv) investment decision based on Minsky´s two price theory; v) importance of firms´s capital structure over the level of aggregate investment; (vi) inflation based on distributive conflict between capitalists and workers; (vii) endogenous money and (ix) endogenous technical progress. The computational simulations of the model reproduce some important features of capitalist dynamics as "cyclical growth" - i. e.; irregular but bounded fluctuations of the growth rate of real GDP -; the occurrence of a single Great Depression over the entire simulation period, what resembles the "rare" nature of great crises in the history of capitalism. The computational simulation also shows that a big reduction in inflation rate in a short period spam will be accompanied by a great financial fragility of productive firms, which, sooner or latter, will generate a great depression. As a corollary of these results follows that the Central Bank should conduct monetary policy in a way to avoid very rapid reduction in inflation rate.
|Date of creation:||2005|
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