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Reforma Da Previdência Social E Custo De Transição: Simulando Um Sistema Universal Para O Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Hélio Zylberstajn
  • Luís Eduardo Afonso
  • André Portela Souza

Abstract

This article presents a reform proposal of Brazil's pension system. The new system is based on the principles of actuarial fairness, incentive to formalization, universalization and simplification of the social security structure. We calculated the balancing contribution rate to the system. The social security debt is also estimated in the present situation and in the proposed system. In the end, the transition cost of shifting to the new system is calculated. The results show that this cost is high, although is distributed in the time.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélio Zylberstajn & Luís Eduardo Afonso & André Portela Souza, 2005. "Reforma Da Previdência Social E Custo De Transição: Simulando Um Sistema Universal Para O Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 052, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:052
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2005/artigos/A05A052.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    2. Luporini, Viviane, 2000. "Sustainability of the Brazilian Fiscal Policy and Central bank Independence," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 54(2), April.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    5. Rocha, Fabiana, 1997. "Long-Run Limits on the Brazilian Government Debt," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 51(4), October.
    6. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    7. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    8. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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