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Metas De Inflação E Vulnerabilidade Externa No Brasil


  • Alexandre Batista Ferreira
  • Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Júnior


The central purpose of this study is to assess the performance of the inflation targeting regime adopted in Brazil, in a context of high exchange rate volatility, as well as high public debt. In order to accomplish this, a Vector Autoregressive methodology was used. The results suggest that: i) the interest rate is an important instrument of monetary policy; ii) there is presence of inflationary inertia; iii) changes in interest rate to fight inflation can provoke more inflation; iv) the inflation rate is quite sensitive to the exchange rate volatility; v) the inflation rate answers, in way erratic and not significant, to the variations in the government's nominal result; vi) inflation rate response to the innovations in the output gap is not significant; vii) output gap responses to inflation rate shocks does not reveal to be significant; and viii) the monetary policy affects the output gap. The main conclusion is that inflation target in Brazil is limited by the no coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the external vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Batista Ferreira & Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Júnior, 2005. "Metas De Inflação E Vulnerabilidade Externa No Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:035

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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos & Jayme Andrade Neto, 2015. "Analyzing COPOM’s Decisions," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(6), pages 24-47, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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