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Shedding light on the Russia-Ukraine War

Author

Listed:
  • Rounak Hande

    (xKDR Forum)

  • Ayush Patnaik

    (xKDR Forum)

  • Ajay Shah

    (xKDR Forum)

  • Susan Thomas

Abstract

With the Russia-Ukraine war evolving into a prolonged war of attrition, the functioning of the two economies has become central. A small but growing literature uses alternative data to measure economic activity, responding to the limitations of official statistics. In this paper, we use nighttime lights ("NTL") data to track economic changes in both countries. Ukraine's NTL has fallen by 50% compared to 2022 levels. In contrast, Russia's aggregate NTL showed virtually no change between 2022 and 2025. Within Russia, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which produces 90% of the country's gas, recorded substantial NTL growth despite reports of declining national gas production. We also identify growth reversals in regions hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, likely reflecting the effects of standoff weapons. Similar reversals appear along Russia's Western European border but not along other international frontiers, suggesting uneven enforcement of sanctions. Over the war years, Ukraine's economic activity has shifted westward, while Russia's has moved eastward.

Suggested Citation

  • Rounak Hande & Ayush Patnaik & Ajay Shah & Susan Thomas, 2025. "Shedding light on the Russia-Ukraine War," Working Papers 40, xKDR.
    • Handle: RePEc:anf:wpaper:40
    as

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    File URL: https://papers.xkdr.org/papers/2025Handeetal_russiaNtl.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Gibson, 2021. "Better Night Lights Data, For Longer," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 770-791, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

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