Shedding light on the Russia-Ukraine War

With the Russia-Ukraine war evolving into a prolonged war of attrition, the functioning of the two economies has become central. A small but growing literature uses alternative data to measure economic activity, responding to the limitations of official statistics. In this paper, we use nighttime lights ("NTL") data to track economic changes in both countries. Ukraine's NTL has fallen by 50% compared to 2022 levels. In contrast, Russia's aggregate NTL showed virtually no change between 2022 and 2025. Within Russia, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which produces 90% of the country's gas, recorded substantial NTL growth despite reports of declining national gas production. We also identify growth reversals in regions hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, likely reflecting the effects of standoff weapons. Similar reversals appear along Russia's Western European border but not along other international frontiers, suggesting uneven enforcement of sanctions. Over the war years, Ukraine's economic activity has shifted westward, while Russia's has moved eastward.