Do External Threats Affect International Relations? Evidence from Small States Neighbouring Russia

This study examines the impact of geopolitical shocks on public trust in international institutions, using the 2014 conflict in Ukraine as a quasi-natural experiment. Drawing on individual-level survey data from the Caucasus Barometer covering the period 2009-2019, we assess changes in trust in the European Union and the United Nations, as well as support for NATO membership, before and after the conflict among respondents in Georgia and Armenia. Although neither country was directly involved in the conflict, the crisis generated substantial geopolitical spillover throughout the South Caucasus. Employing a Difference-in-Differences design, we find a significant decline in trust toward these organizations in Georgia after 2014, a country characterized by a pro-Western foreign policy orientation and unresolved tensions with Russia, and therefore more exposed to the conflict's geopolitical consequences. In contrast, Armenia-more closely aligned with Russia and less directly affected-serves as a credible control case. We further examine how individual-level characteristics condition these effects. Our results show that individuals with a pro-Western identity, proxied by support for English as a mandatory school language, experienced smaller declines or even increases in institutional trust. Conversely, respondents with pro-Russian orientations exhibited significantly larger decreases in confidence. Overall, these findings highlight the polarizing effects of external geopolitical shocks and underscore the importance of cultural and political identity in shaping public attitudes toward international institutions in small states bordering Russia.