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When wording changes what we find: The impact of inflation expectations on spending

Author

Listed:
  • Tiziana Assenza

    (Toulouse School Of Economics)

  • Stefanie J. Huber

    (University of Bonn)

  • Anna Mogilevskaja

    (University of Bonn)

  • Tobias Schmidt

    (tobias.schmidt@bundesbank.de)

Abstract

How households’ inflation expectations affect their spending is a central question for researchers and policymakers alike. Yet empirical evidence remains mixed. We show that the consumption question researchers choose can change the sign and strength of the estimated relationship. Questions about spending attitudes and plans yield negative associations with expected inflation, while questions about past spending yield weakly positive or insignificant associations. Differences in question type matter much more than reference unit or recall horizon. Treating these measures as interchangeable can lead to misleading conclusions about the expectations channel of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiziana Assenza & Stefanie J. Huber & Anna Mogilevskaja & Tobias Schmidt, 2026. "When wording changes what we find: The impact of inflation expectations on spending," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 074, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:074
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    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_074_2026.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
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