دراسة تحليلية لبعض العوامل المحددة لمساحة البرسيم المصرى

Although berseem is the most important feed source in Egypt, its area expands at the expenses of the food crops acreage. Long season berseem area increases at 3.3 % a year, which is direct response of its price growth at about 15 % a year, i.e. much higher than cotton and wheat prices growth. The agricultural policy recommends decreasing this area, in order to expand wheat and other alternative crops area. The study used two sample surveys conducted in 1985, to investigate the factors affecting the berseem area. Statistical inferences, relative frequency distributions, as well as multiple regression were used for the analytical purposes. The results showed that the livestock size and composition is one of the major factors which affected the berseem acreage. Whereas, long season berseem is mainly affected by the number of dairy animals, short season berseem is only affected by the fattening animals, beside the cotton acreage. The response of the farmers towards decreasing the long season berseem acreage at the international prices of wheat and cotton is very limited. Only, less than 30 % of the holders are expected to decrease the long season berseem area at high prices of competitive crops, i.e. at international equivalent prices.