Export Performance in Fiji, 1960 to 1999

Stochastic dominance analysis was used to assess export performance in Fiji from 1960 to 1999. A country with reasonably abundant resources, Fiji has made effective use of its quite substantial resources to increase total export values significantly over the study period, with an average rate of growth of 2.6 per cent per annum. Non-agricultural exports were the source of this growth, increasing annually by 7.3 per cent. Growth was particularly strong from the late 1980s despite the loss of skills and capital flight in the wake of the May 1987 coup and military takeover. The economy clearly benefited from a policy switch from a trade protectionist policy with a high degree of government intervention to an export-oriented strategy based on private sector-led development. The values of total exports in the 1990s were dominant overall. The values in the 1980s dominated values in the 1960s and 1970s as a result of the expansion of non-agricultural exports. The 1970s stochastically dominated the 1960s clearly and the 1980s dominated the 1970s for non-agricultural exports. Non-agricultural export values continued to expand in the final decade of the study period, rendering overall stochastic dominance of the 1990s over the 1980s and preceding decades. The dominant decade for agricultural exports was the 1970s. However, the increase in agricultural export values during the 1970s was offset by a decline in agricultural export values in the final two decades of the study period such that there was no trend in agricultural export values over the whole study period.