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Evaluation of "Straw Man" Model 1, the Simple Linear Model, for Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana

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  • Sebaugh, Jeanne L.

Abstract

Straw man model 1 is one of the simplest regression models which can be used to predict crop yields. A one-line regression of yield over time, it represents the increases in yield which have occurred through the adoption of improved varieties, and the increased use of fertilizer and other cultural practices. The performance of this model in predicting soybean yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana is evaluated. Eight model characteristics are discussed. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from bootstrap testing show that the bias is generally small for this model. However, the model is unable to predict the low and high yields accurately. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple, and not costly. However it does not consider known scientific relationships and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebaugh, Jeanne L., 1981. "Evaluation of "Straw Man" Model 1, the Simple Linear Model, for Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana," Staff Reports 321192, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:321192
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.321192
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/321192/files/AGESS810304.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kestle, Richard A., 1981. "Analysis of Crop Yield Trends and Development of Simple Corn and Soybean "Straw Man" Models for Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa," Staff Reports 321251, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebaugh, Jeanne L., 1981. "One, Two, and Three Line Segment "Straw Man" Models: Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana," Staff Reports 321270, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. McCormick, M. Denice & Birkett, Thomas R., 1992. "Evaluating the Addition of Weather Data to Survey Data to Forecast Soybean Yields," NASS Research Reports 323938, United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

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    1. Sebaugh, Jeanne L., 1981. "One, Two, and Three Line Segment "Straw Man" Models: Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana," Staff Reports 321270, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. McCormick, M. Denice & Birkett, Thomas R., 1992. "Evaluating the Addition of Weather Data to Survey Data to Forecast Soybean Yields," NASS Research Reports 323938, United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

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