Effects On The Ussr Of The 1980 U.S. Embargo On Agricultural Exports

The 1980 U.S. embargo on agricultural exports to the USSR had little short-term effect on the Soviet feed/livestock sector because Soviet grain stocks and grain, oilseed, and animal products from other countries were available. In the longer term, other factors in addition to the embargo—decreased Soviet grain production, a shortage of hard currency, and deteriorating terms of trade for energy exports versus agricultural imports—caused the Soviets to rethink their policy of increased dependence on grain imports. The embargo did result in an immediate and substantial reduction in the U.S. shares of the Soviet grain and oilseed markets. Uncertainties about U.S. intentions with regard to extending or renegotiating the long-term grain agreement may have further discouraged the Soviets from increasing the U.S. market shares in the 2 years after the embargo. Since then, other factors, including increased sensitivity to grain prices and increased competition among grain-exporting countries, have held U.S. shares below pre-embargo levels.