Global Demand for Fuel Ethanol Through 2030

After seeing strong growth for several years, U.S. ethanol-based demand for corn has plateaued over the last decade at about 5 billion bushels, or roughly 40 percent of U.S. corn production. Recently, demand for transportation fuels was reduced by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Though these markets largely recovered, moving forward, increased adoption of hybrid or electric vehicles and continued fuel efficiency gains will decrease domestic gasoline consumption, which in turn could decrease domestic fuel ethanol demand. These impacts could result in additional unutilized U.S. ethanol-production capacity. Ethanol policies in potential export markets are another factor that could influence the economic health of the U.S. corn-based ethanol industry and are the focus of this report. The report summarizes the U.S. and international fuel ethanol markets and provides two scenarios of future fuel ethanol demand in international markets: A “Historical Blends” scenario that assumes countries continue to blend ethanol at historical rates, and a “Targeted Blends” scenario that assumes countries with higher stated goals or mandates fully meet those goals or mandates. Results indicate that countries fully meeting ethanol blend rates or other policies will be required to see significant growth in fuel ethanol demand.