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Maintaining plausible calorie intakes, crop yields and crop land expansion in long-run simulations with Computable General Equilibrium Models

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  • Britz, Wolfgang

Abstract

We demonstrate how a combination of different elements can jointly provide plausible long-term trends for calorie intakes, crop yields and land use in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. Specifically, we depict household demand based on a MAIDADS demand system estimated based on cross-sectional data. In order to control for calorie intake we first regress calorie intake on per capita income and construct a Leontief inverse to derive implicit calorie intakes from the final consumption of processed food. This allows jointly shifting preferences of the MAIDADS system by updating commitment terms and marginal budget shares, to arrive at plausible per capita calorie intakes during baseline construction. We control yields based on exogenous projections which we also use to parameterize our land supply functions. The contribution of the different elements is evaluated by comprising key developments in baselines up to 2050 constructed with different model variants

Suggested Citation

  • Britz, Wolfgang, 2020. "Maintaining plausible calorie intakes, crop yields and crop land expansion in long-run simulations with Computable General Equilibrium Models," Discussion Papers 302922, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubfred:302922
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.302922
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty;

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