Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2002-2009 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming and ranching operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) January 2005 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’ economic viability by region and commodity through the life of the 2002 Farm Bill. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers and ranchers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the January 2005 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing a negative ending cash balance and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2009. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI January 2005 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh and eighth sections summarize simulation results for dairy and cattle. Two appendices constitute the final section of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.