IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline


  • Outlaw, Joe L.
  • Richardson, James W.
  • Herbst, Brian K.
  • Knapek, George M.
  • Anderson, David P.
  • Sartwelle, James D., III
  • Raulston, J. Marc
  • Feldman, Paul A.
  • Schumann, Keith D.
  • Klose, Steven L.
  • Schwart, Robert B., Jr.
  • Zimmel, Peter


The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2004-2011 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming and ranching operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) December 2005 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine the farms’ economic viability by region and commodity through the life of the 2002 Farm Bill. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers and ranchers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the December 2005 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing a negative ending cash balance and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2011. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI December 2005 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh and eighth sections summarize simulation results for dairy and cattle. Two appendices constitute the final section of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.

Suggested Citation

  • Outlaw, Joe L. & Richardson, James W. & Herbst, Brian K. & Knapek, George M. & Anderson, David P. & Sartwelle, James D., III & Raulston, J. Marc & Feldman, Paul A. & Schumann, Keith D. & Klose, Steven, 2005. "Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2005 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline," Working Papers 42103, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:tamfwp:42103
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.42103

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:tamfwp:42103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.