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Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

Author

Listed:
  • Richardson, James W.
  • Outlaw, Joe L.
  • Knapek, George M.
  • Raulston, J. Marc
  • Herbst, Brian K.
  • Fumasi, Roland J.
  • Anderson, David P.
  • Klose, Steven L.

Abstract

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 on representative crop and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2005-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms, and • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by farmers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the August 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing negative ending cash reserves and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Knapek, George M. & Raulston, J. Marc & Herbst, Brian K. & Fumasi, Roland J. & Anderson, David P. & Klose, Steven L., 2007. "Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline," Briefing Series 37982, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:tamfbs:37982
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37982
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    Cited by:

    1. Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2007. "AP - Training Commercial Farmers How To Analyse And Rank Risky Alternatives," 16th Congress, Cork, Ireland, July 15-20, 2007 345470, International Farm Management Association.
    2. Raulston, J. Marc & Knapek, George M. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Anderson, David P., 2008. "The Farm Level Economic Impacts of Increased Cash Lease Rates," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6767, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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