IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/sbrfsr/109536.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efeitos De Curto E Longo Prazos De Choques Na Taxa De Câmbio Real Sobre O Saldo Da Balança Comercial Agropecuária Brasileira

Author

Listed:
  • Scalco, Paulo Roberto
  • Carvalho, Henrique Duarte
  • Campos, Antonio Carvalho

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os efeitos de longo e curto prazos de choques na taxa de câmbio real sobre o saldo da balança comercial agropecuária brasileira. O procedimento metodológico empregado foi a análise multivariada descrita em Johansen (1988 e 1991) apud Hamilton (1994). Os resultados indicam que existe uma relação de longo prazo entre a depreciação na taxa de câmbio real e o saldo da balança comercial. Verifica-se que, no longo prazo, um aumento de 1,0 % da taxa de câmbio leva a uma expansão de 2,10 % no saldo da balança comercial. Esse resultado está consistente com a condição de Marshall-Lerner que afirma: no longo prazo, o efeito volume deve superar o efeito preço, promovendo, assim, um aumento no saldo da balança comercial. Entretanto, no curto prazo, rejeita-se a hipótese de existência da Curva J, em que o saldo da balança comercial pioraria num primeiro instante, e, apenas, melhoraria depois de transcorrido um determinado tempo. Assim, pode-se concluir que depreciações na taxa de câmbio real que visem aumentar as exportações do setor agropecuário brasileiro, seriam bem sucedidas sob o ponto de vista de que não afetariam negativamente o saldo da balança comercial no curto prazo.----------------------------------------------The objective of this study is to analyze short and long run effects of changes in the real exchange rate on the trade balance of the Brazilian agricultural sector. The methodological procedures involves the multivariate analysis as described in Johansen (1988 e 1991) apud Hamilton (1994). The results indicate that exist a positive long run relationship between depreciation of the Brazilian real exchange rate and the agricultural trade balance. In the long run, a depreciation of one percent in the real exchange rate increases the agricultural trade balance in 2.10 %. This result is consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition which states that the volume effect must overcome the price effect in the long run, promoting in this way an improvement in the agricultural trade balance. However, in the short run, the existence of the J-Curve is rejected, i.e., the agricultural trade balance does not decline just following the depreciation and only would improve after some period of time. Thus, the conclusion is that depreciation of real exchange rate would be successful in order to increase Brazilian agricultural exports under the view that this change would not reduce the agricultural trade balance in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Scalco, Paulo Roberto & Carvalho, Henrique Duarte & Campos, Antonio Carvalho, 2008. "Efeitos De Curto E Longo Prazos De Choques Na Taxa De Câmbio Real Sobre O Saldo Da Balança Comercial Agropecuária Brasileira," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil 109536, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109536
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guilhoto, J. J. M. & Sesso Filho, U. A., 2005. "Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto a Partir De Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais
      [Estimation of input-output matrix using preliminary data from national accounts]
      ," MPRA Paper 38212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2011. "Análise de Insumo-Produto: Teoria e Fundamentos
      [Input-Output Analysis: Theory and Foundations]
      ," MPRA Paper 32566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/soberea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.